First things first I want to thank you for making my new book the number one new release in its category on Amazon. We’re a few weeks away from the official release date and the excitement has now become palpable. This thing is 15 years + in the making and I’ve poured my heart and soul into writing it for you. And yes, there will also be an audio version, narrated by yours truly.

If you haven’t pre-ordered the book yet, find at your favorite book seller at this link.

August and Everything After

Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe came by to talk volatility and one of the most important ideas we discussed was the fact that volatility is two times as likely to peak in August as it is during any other calendar month. We used to think of October as being the higher volatility month and, of course, we experienced the TARP vote in 2008, the Crash of ‘87 and the Crash of ‘29 during the month of October so the reputation is not entirely unfounded. But an interesting thing has happened in recent decades that has chilled the volatility of October out somewhat - actively managed mutual funds have become a less powerful factor.

Mutual funds typically end their fiscal years in October, not December, and, as such, would take all of their capital gains (and losses) in that month. This rise in the overall trading would exacerbate the volatility every October, padding the stats so to speak. But passive strategies and the popularity of index investing have dulled the edge of it as AUM has shifted from one style of investing to the other. The trading activity of mutual fund managers is now significantly less impactful than it used to be.

I say all this to say that while October will always maintain the patina of being a wild season for stocks, it’s much more likely that this year, and in subsequent years, it’s August you really need to steel yourself for. The good news is, the 65 Vix print we experienced two weeks ago is probably as wild as things will get for the time being. The vicious rally off the low we’ve just experienced feels like a market that is now exhaling with the worst being behind us.

Also worth noting, over the last hundred years or so, the market has put in its high for the year during the month of December approximately half the time. With earnings growth chugging along and the next Fed move being a series of interest rate cuts, we certainly have the ammunition we need for a happy ending.

You can watch Nick, Jessica and I discuss this topic and others on an all new What Did We Learn or listen to it here.

They’re paying Brian Niccol how much???

Michael and I returned this week for an all new What Are Your Thoughts taking a look at the massive pay package for the new Starbucks CEO, the likelihood of Magnificent 7 stocks maintaining their dominant returns for the rest of the year and I make the case for a trading position in PayPal:

I can’t believe how incredible the lineup is for Future Proof 2024, it’s literally a Dream Team of influential speakers. Plus, Third Eye Blind and X Ambassadors are coming by to rock the house on the last night.

If you work in wealth management or asset management or fintech, now is the time to secure your spot. We’ve got 3,700 confirmed attendees versus 2,400 last year. And the number continues to rise, with potentially 4,000 people attending.

Over 300 sponsors are helping us put the event on, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of New York, Fidelity, Morningstar, State Street and too many others to list.

Michael and I will be doing a live The Compound and Friends from the festival’s main stage with legendary RIA entrepreneur Peter Mallouk of Creative Planning. Peter’s built his firm from the ground up with current assets under management of over $245 billion. He almost never appears at industry events so we’re excited to bring this conversation to the audience live. Yes, it’ll be on our podcast and YouTube as well a few days later.

I hope to see you in Huntington Beach this September. It’s going to be amazing. Learn more about how you can be there at this link.

Okay, that’s it from me today. Talk soon! - Josh