Superman / Warner Bros

Lets not bury the lede - we got the official Superman teaser trailer this morning and it looks incredible. When Warner Bros grabbed director James Gunn to spearhead the revival of their DC Universe films, I knew he would nail it. The three Guardians movies he made for Disney / Marvel are among the best comic book film adaptations of all time. His sensibilities have been note-perfect over the years and the consistency of his stuff is exactly what the DC properties have been missing.

You can watch it below:

I’m sad to say I sold this stock in the single digits a few months after writing about it here in March so I take no credit for the fact that it has almost doubled off the lows:

The stock sold off big yesterday during the Fed scare because this is a highly indebted company that would be better off if rates would go significantly lower so they could continue to retire / refinance and clean up the balance sheet. Less cuts next year than expected, which is what Jay Powell just telegraphed, means less opportunity to do so for Warner.

Maybe this dips back into the single digits and I get another shot at it. We’ll see.

Nvidia Bulls Freak Out

This week on What Are Your Thoughts, Michael and I did a dive into the burgeoning AI chip story and all of the various semi and non-semi companies currently building in this space. Amazon, Meta, Google, Apple, OpenAI - these are Nvidia’s biggest customers for GPU chips but they’re also now full-speed ahead in their quest to design AI-related chips of their own. Application Specific Integrated Circuits or ASICs are the key to these efforts - these are chips that are not as flexible or powerful as an Nvidia GPU but they can help bridge the gap in certain circumstances so that data centers and devices can carry out narrower operations while the backlog for GPUs clears up.

I noticed a lot of anger in the comments about bringing up the mere possibility that Nvidia may finally be facing competition going into next year. People are furious to hear this. Someone told me I needed to do some research on the company - he may not have gotten the memo that it’s one of my largest positions personally and a stock I have owned and preached since 2015 on national television. Thanks for the suggestion. Anytime people become visibly (audibly) irate at the suggestion that a stock could potentially underperform, that’s your signal to start thinking about potential downside. Six years ago I had to yell at people who were bearish on Nvidia because of the crypto crash (true story). Now, if I even hint at any doubt, I’m the one getting yelled out.

How times have changed.

I’d like to point out that you can be bullish on a stock like Nvidia while acknowledging the rising competitive threats on the horizon. This isn’t the same thing as saying Nvidia is going to lose its place at the top of the heap. Tesla has faced numerous competitive threats and has thrived regardless. Same for Netflix. The presence of competitors keeps a company sharp and, in some cases, it actually serves to validate the market and expand the TAM. In America, we celebrate competition as a prod that forces us to do better and innovate harder. We don’t have government-granted monopolies in this country. Every one of the Mag 7 stocks has become a Mag 7 stock because of how they played the cards they were dealt. Don’t lose sight of this fact as you invest and then vigorously defend your investment in online chatrooms and comment sections.

Anyway, we went around the semi sector this week and I don’t want you to miss it. If you want to better understand why Broadcom became the breakout stock of 2024, and why Marvell is on everyone’s radar too, this is the episode for you:

Alumni Day

This morning I was honored to be invited to speak at my old high school for Alumni Day. The entire senior class at JFK Bellmore crowded into the auditorium as I told my story - the bad parts too - and tried to encourage everyone to make their lives easier than mine had been.

I reminded the kids that there were no plaques commemorating my academic achievements there, no trophies in the case with my name inscribed on them. It took me a long time to figure things out while I tortured myself throughout my twenties. But then, one day, I made a decision. I decided that I had had enough. I swore to make a major change in my life and, as I told the kids, the universe conspired to help me.

This is the story I told in my new book, You Weren’t Supposed To See That. If you don’t know what to get for your friends and family this Christmas, give them this. It’s the story of the last fifteen years in the markets and the economy and how we found our through it. It’s also the story of how I go from brokerage firm cold-caller with a negative net worth to CEO of the hottest RIA in America. If you’ve read it, I hope you liked it. And if you haven’t, I think you’re in for a treat.

Get it on Amazon now!

Future Proof Citywide in Miami this March

Last thing - if you’re a financial advisor or anyone working in or adjacent to the wealth management industry, we just dropped the agenda for Future Proof Citywide, our inaugural event in Miami Beach this coming March. We’re bringing a massive outdoor event to the city with multiple concert stages and an outrageous roster of speakers. I’ll have more to say on who’s coming and what’s going on over the coming weeks. For now, make sure you’re registered and have your spot. You’re not going to want to miss it.

Agenda and more details here:

Future Proof Citywide Miami

That’s all from me for now, talk soon! - Josh