It’s a jinx.

You can say things are good. You can say things have normalized. You can say the risks are balanced and well understood. You can say conditions are improving. You can remark that earnings are strong for the most important companies reporting this quarter (Meta put on a Disney-esque parade down Main Street USA last night). You can say this morning’s report that the US economy added more than 350,000 jobs in January is an amazing display of our resilience versus higher interest rates. You can say multi-year lows for gas prices and a falling mortgage rate and super-low unemployment and wage growth outpacing shelter costs (finally) and profit margins expanding and all of these wonderful things happening in concert are terrific.

Two reasons we don’t say “Goldilocks” out loud…

First, the Bond Kings will put a bounty on your head and send their henchmen to your house. Second, because conditions are always changing, this statement is bound to look ridiculous in hindsight when something (or some things) inevitably gets worse. It could get even better before it gets worse, but that won’t matter. All that people will remember is that you were the Goldilocks guy and look at how f***ed up everything got since you said it. Thanks a lot. 

So if you’re looking at Meta adding $250 billion in market cap post-close after crushing their fourth quarter, don’t call it Goldilocks. If you’re seeing stocks around the world consolidate last year’s huge gains without giving much back, don’t say the word. If you’re feeling optimistic about the year to come with hiring costs down for companies, commodity prices tame and borrowing rates easing, keep the G word out of your mouth.

Whatever you do, and however you might feel, just don’t say it out loud. Please.

Warren Pies

We have Warren Pies on The Compound and Friends today. It’s an incredible episode because Warren comes to the table with so much information and such a unique perspective on markets, economics and everything going on right now. He told us he is not, by nature, an optimistic person. So he had to force himself to learn how to be upbeat when the data says so. And that’s how he’s feeling now. March cut, May cut, doesn’t matter so much. The timing of the first 25 basis point rate cut of the cycle isn’t going to be the thing that determines the course of history.

We also get into Mark Zuckerberg’s survival bunker, year four of the Presidential cycle in the stock market, Warren’s weightlifting routine and why you want to get really bullish when Wall Street’s strategists are still shaking off their own negativity.

Listen on your favorite podcast app right now.

Okay, that’s it from me. Have a great weekend, talk soon. - Josh